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The Baseball Card Effect

Written by Matt

Monday, 24 September 2007 11:16

I recently took a trip back to the United States, one night during which I found myself standing in the basement of my parents' house, staring at boxes and boxes of baseball cards I had collected throughout my youth. I had stacked the boxes in the corner of the closet back when I was in elementary school in hope that one day I might sell them for enough money to buy a house boat for me and my camel I would name Lumpy.
The next morning, I decided to take a shoebox full of my most valuable specimens (speculated value $1,500) to the local baseball card hobby shop and have them appraised. The guy that appraised them was about fifty years old and wore a Transformers t-shirt, so I figured he knew what he was talking about when he told me the actual value of my shoebox was no more than two hundred bucks.

"Two hundred bucks?!" I shouted. "I must've spent $200 on those shoes alone!" I don't know why I was commenting on the actual shoes from the shoebox as they were totally irrelevant. Perhaps it was more because I was so saddened by the truth. But alas, I have come to realize that, as can be associated with the current status of real estate in Panama City, those taking the "hold" approach of baseball cards in my generation are simply kidding themselves.

So if we compare these baseball cards to the evolution of real estate market in Panama City, we can see that uniformity, mass production, and fad-like trends can be a harsh but valid piece of stale bubble gum to swallow. So how, somewhere down the line when the bubble bursts, can Panama City's real estate market reinvent itself if at all?

For the Panama City real estate market to "bounce back", Panama itself as a tourism destination needs to be fortified. Upon establishing itself as a unique destination, Panama City can then join the likes of Paris and NYC and Milan, where tourism is the bread and butter. Chicken, Egg.
For the market to rebound, this resurgence of interest cannot feasibly come from those "disgruntled buyers" because they're already desperate to get the damn condos (or baseball cards) off their hands. This interest will need to come from new investors, a good candidate in my opinion being the children of the baby boomers: a new generation who's cultured, who loves new things, and who has a passion for travel. Marketing campaigns and product must be adapted and geared appropriately.
To avoid monotonous oversupply, limitations will have to be set and regulations strictly established. In collecting baseball cards, statistics and integrity have been compromised. Nowadays, thanks to technology, good old-fashioned skills are becoming archaic, and thanks to steroids old records are broken routinely. It is at this point when developers, consumers, and the government in Panama should question whether the sleekest or tallest tower is really best.
Lastly, passion and fondness need to come into play. More people need to be living in these buildings or at least buying in Panama City because they like the place, not based solely on numbers. I was guilty of buying baseball cards not because I liked the players but because I thought they would be valuable one day and alas, that indifference probably helped fuel the bust.

Granted, this may be a silly analogy, but it was a nice way to vent my anger about my now-worthless collection of baseball cards which might as well be used as garden mulch for tomatoes. Using baseball card collectors' opinions and predictions can be useful. This article also hopefully acts as a warning to those rushing to buy as many pre-construction condos as they can. [Note: I recently received a message from someone who purchased seven condos on Avenida Balboa and is unable to sell any of them. Pour soul.] Like the baseball card hayday, manufacturers are upping prices, overwhelming the market with too many different (but similar) products, and tantalizing buyers with new catches. The product inevitably becomes impersonal, detached, and hollow.

Observing the amount of producers to the market, the quality of product on the market, and the ability of that product to maintain value are important factors to consider whether collecting baseball cards or buying real estate. Granted, to an extent Panama City is a neat enough place that people will want to live there no matter how bad the real estate market is. But if it's pure speculation that's driving you to buy that $600,000 condo, think about what the man in the Transformers' shirt might say.

Sources: reddit.com/info/b5qz/comments
lockergnome.com/nexus/media/2006/06/26/baseball-card-realities/

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